AL Central: White Sox GM Williams exploring limited trade options

Baseball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Chicago White Sox continue to try and fend off Detroit and Minnesota in the American League Central standings, all eyes are on general manager Kenny Williams to make something happen before next Saturday's trade deadline.

This is the time of year when the rumor mill is churning nonstop. Already, the White Sox have been linked to Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder, Nationals first baseman Adam Dunn and Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista. According to multiple reports in the Chicago media, the Brewers had a scout at Monday's White Sox game against Seattle. Fielder, who is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, would seem to satisfy Chicago's search for a left-handed power hitter. All told, the White Sox have tallied a combined 16 homers and 73 RBI from the left side.

However, Williams said there are no imminent deals on the horizon.

"If I'm being honest and completely transparent right now of the price that is being asked for some of the players that we've inquired about, for us, it's more detrimental to our present and our future than we'd like," Williams said. "We'll see how that develops.

"But right now, I don't see anything materializing."

Manager Ozzie Guillen seems to realize as much, having recently dubbed resurgent second baseman Gordon Beckham as his key trade deadline acquisition, tongue-in-cheek of course. Beckham endured a miserable first half and was hitting just .199 a month ago, on June 23. But he has started to pick it up at the plate, and had an eight-game hit streak come to an end Tuesday night. During those eight games, Beckham was hitting .571 with four doubles, two homers and eight RBI.

"A lot of people ask for trades and we just made one," Guillen said. "We got Gordon Beckham. We didn't have him for two months. That's the big trade we make. Gordon is swinging the bat very well, and we need that in the bottom of the lineup to make that stronger."

Regarding the actual trade market, Guillen is well aware of the same few names being mentioned across the league -- specifically, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, and Adam Dunn.

"Kenny sees our team in a different way than I do," Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. "He sees what's missing. But from down here, I'm happy with what we have."

One guy the White Sox manager has enjoyed watching is Omar Vizquel, an 11-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop who has made a seamless switch to third base for Chicago this season. Of the 51 games Vizquel has played for his new team, 38 have come at the hot corner. Though he said playing third base hasn't exactly come naturally, he has conceded that he feels much more comfortable on the left side of the infield than at second base.

Regular third baseman Mark Teahen is recovering from a finger injury, but with Vizquel's stellar glove and offensive production -- he is hitting .301 in 34 games since Teahen went on the DL June 1 -- Teahen could find himself in a bench role upon returning. Guillen said he doesn't think Vizquel should lose his job, and would try to move Teahen all around and see how it works out.

The manager is also figuring out what to do about his closer, which he said is now an open job following Bobby Jenks' blown save in the 11th inning against Seattle Wednesday night, marking the second time Jenks has blown a lead during the current road trip. In four outings since the All-Star break, Jenks has allowed seven runs on seven hits while walking two in a span of 2 2/3 innings.

Of course, the last time Guillen opened the competition for the closer's job was May 9, after Jenks surrendered a game-winning home run to Toronto's Fred Lewis. But Jenks was able to hold onto the job, converting 15 straight save chances until Wednesday's meltdown. This time around, however, Guillen said he is seeing 'nothing' on the ball when Jenks pitches, and will do what he needs to win ballgames.

TRIBE OFF TO A HOT START IN SECOND HALF

Sometimes, the best thing for a struggling player, or team, is some time away from the game. That seems to be just what the doctor ordered for the Cleveland Indians, winners of six straight coming out of the break.

Considering the Tribe only sent Fausto Carmona to the Midsummer Classic, virtually the entire team got a nice breather after a tough first half. Cleveland completed a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers last weekend, then went on the road and took two straight from the Minnesota Twins, before coming back down to Earth with a 6-0 loss at Target Field Wednesday night.

Beginning Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are in town for a three-game set, and if history is any indication, that's more good news for the Tribe. The Rays have lost their last 17 games at Progressive Field, a stretch that dates back to 2005. You read that last sentence correctly. The Rays, owners of the second-best record in baseball (57-37), have a 17-game road losing skid to the last-place Indians (40-55).

Although the Rays have the best road record in baseball (31-17), they are catching the Indians on the heels of their longest winning streak of the season.

"We're playing good baseball," said manager Manny Acta. "We're pitching well, catching the ball, getting timely hitting. As cliche as it may sound, that's how you win ballgames."

TIGERS STUMBLE OUT OF THE GATE

While some ballclubs come back sharper after some time off, others struggle to regain the momentum they had before the break. The Detroit Tigers fall into the latter category, having lost six in a row following the All-Star break.

Although they've finally woken up by winning each of their last two games, the Tigers are holding their breath when it comes to the health of Magglio Ordonez. According to the team's website, Ordonez has been dealing with a bothersome ankle since last weekend in Cleveland.

"It's getting better," Ordonez said Thursday afternoon, a day after being removed for a defensive replacement in the eighth inning against Texas. "I'm getting treatment right now."

Manager Jim Leyland has used Ordonez as a designated hitter twice this week, hoping to spare his ankle from as much trauma as possible. Ordonez indicated he may return to right field Friday night.

BLACKBURN BUMPED FROM TWINS' ROTATION

Nick Blackburn has finally run out of chances in the Minnesota Twins rotation. On Wednesday, manager Ron Gardenhire announced that he would be sending Blackburn to the bullpen and giving Friday's start to Brian Duensing. For Duensing, it marks his first start in a year.

"You try to make a few changes -- a little bullpen, a little starting rotation -- and see what happens," Gardenhire said. "We like our pitchers. It's just not been good enough right now. So you make a change here and there and see what happens. Whether it's going to get us on the right track, I don't know."

In 18 starts this season, Blackburn was 7-7 with a team-high 6.53 ERA and 19 home runs allowed. He had surrendered four or more earned runs in each of his last six starts. Blackburn had won 11 games in each of the last two seasons, but his struggles have been snowballing as this year has progressed.

Pitching coach Rick Anderson said he thinks "it's a good move for Blackburn probably more than anyone."

The Twins entered Friday tied with Detroit, two games behind Chicago in the division.

ROYALS DEAL CALLASPO FOR PITCHING HELP

The Kansas City Royals shook up their roster on Thursday, sending switch- hitting third baseman Alberto Callaspo to the Angels for right-hander Sean O'Sullivan and Double-A lefty Will Smith. The move came just prior to Thursday's series opener against the Yankees, with Callaspo being pulled from the lineup less than an hour before game time.

Callaspo had spent the past three seasons with Kansas City, hitting a respectable .293 in 317 games. This season, the 27-year-old Callaspo was hitting .275 with eight homers and 43 RBI in 88 starts. The move clears the path for Mike Moustakas, the organization's third baseman of the future, who was just promoted to Triple-A Omaha on July 15 after hitting .347 with 21 homers and 76 RBI in 66 games at Double-A Northwest Arkansas.

"We figured we were going to have to move Alberto at some point because of the guys we've got coming," general manager Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star. "So we thought we'd better be proactive in trying to make a move. We got a couple of young pitchers we think can be part of our future."

In addition to making room for Moustakas, the Royals get some much needed pitching help. O'Sullivan, 22, could join the rotation as soon as Sunday's series finale at Yankee Stadium. A third-round pick in 2005, O'Sullivan was 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five games, including one start, for the Angels.

With the July 31 trade deadline fast approaching, there is a strong possibility that Callaspo won't be the last veteran player to leave Kansas City.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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