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06/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2010 Triple Crown series provided little intrigue over the five weeks. No 'super horse' stepped forward for the races after the elimination of the injured Eskendereya.
Lookin At Lucky, 2009 champion two-year-old colt, was the 3-1 morning-line Kentucky Derby favorite, but drew the rail post which basically eliminated him from winning. Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy went out too fast and faltered.
Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver was the 5-2 program favorite for the Preakness after winning the Run for the Roses at 8-1. He failed to hit the board as Lookin At Lucky got the win.
Neither winner from the first two legs of the Triple Crown came to the Belmont Stakes. Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box was the tentative morning-line favorite at 3-1 with Preakness runner-up First Dude the 7-2 second choice.
Ice Box was never a factor in the race and First Dude finished third after being passed right before the wire by Fly Down. Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer got an excellent ride by Mike Smith who was aboard the colt for the first time.
Not a single horse started in all three Triple Crown races. After last year's excitement over 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird winning the Run for the Roses and filly Rachel Alexandra outlasting the gelding to capture the Preakness, only 45,243 people decided to come out to the Belmont Stakes.
"I think with the three different horses. Super Saver, Looking at Lucky, and Drosselmeyer today," WinStar Farm manager Elliott Walden said Saturday, "I think you can group all three of them together. It's hard to really differentiate between them until we get into the Haskell and the Travers and the Breeder's Cup Classic.
"I think the rest of the year will decide who the best is. As we sit here today, I've got to believe that we have two of the top three in Drosselmeyer and Super Saver and watching Super Saver train all week, being up here, he's doing great. I'm excited to see him get the opportunity to get back and redeem himself. We'll see. I can't really differentiate between any of the three. Bob Baffert's horse, Looking at Lucky is a very good horse as well. It's going to be an exciting second half of the year."
An oddity occurred during the running of the Belmont Stakes. Uptowncharlybrown finished fifth, but was disqualified to 12th. The chestnut colt, ridden by Rajiv Maragh, lost the eight-pound lead weight pad during the race to force the disqualification.
"It was a very strange situation," said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. "I've never had that happen to me, but I'm sure it has happened before."
Jockey Alex Solis went from being in a Long Island hospital on Saturday to making history on Sunday.
The veteran rider was briefly hospitalized for high blood pressure Saturday at Belmont Park where Solis was to ride Tanda in the Acorn Stakes. Tanda would finish third with Mike Smith riding.
"He went to the hospital and got a clean bill of health," said the jockey's agent Brian Beach. "He was OK when he got there, but right before the race after he had been on an Equicizer for a half-hour another doctor came in and Alex's blood pressure was up."
Solis was well enough to ride at Monmouth Park on Sunday. He guided Mandurah to a new world record for a one-mile turf race at the Jersey Shore track.
Mandurah went 1:31.23 over the firm course in a $55,500 starter handicap race. The old record of 1:31.41 was held by Mister Light, who set the mark on January 3, 2005 at Gulfstream Park as a six-year-old.
"He's a very talented horse," noted Mandurah's trainer Grant Forster "We thought he'd like the firm turf at Monmouth, which he did very well. We purchased him privately as a four-year-old and gelded him. He always trained well in the morning, but didn't show up in the afternoon. But over this winter we got him in some races and gained his confidence back."
Owned by Greene Colvin, the six-year-old gelding will continue on in the Malouf Auto Group Starter Series with a 1 1/16-mile race on Saturday, June 26.
<< Shea claims first Player of the Week award
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas midfielder Brek Shea was voted Major
League Soccer Player of the Week for week 11 of the 2010 MLS season.
Shea scored two goals for FC Dallas in the span of two minutes during their
2-0 victory
<< Brewers part ways with veteran P Suppan
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers released veteran right-
handed pitcher Jeff Suppan on Monday.
The 35-year-old came to Milwaukee via free agency in December 2006 after
spending the previous three seasons with St.
<< Rybarikova, Tanasugarn advance in Birmingham
Birmingham, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tenth-seeded reigning champion
Magdalena Rybarikova and Thai veteran Tamarine Tanasugarn were among Monday's
winners at the $220,000 Aegon Classic, a grass-court Wimbledon tune-up.
Rybarikova
<< Lookin At Lucky tops final three-year-old poll
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky came
out in first again in the final NTRA Thoroughbred Three-Year-Old Poll of 2010.
The colt was followed by Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver and Belmont Stakes
winner
Amazing Nadal, surprising Schiavone shine in City of Light >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Order was somewhat restored with Rafael
Nadal titling in Paris, but the women's edition of the 2010 French Open failed
to make a whole lot of sense, considering Francesca Schiavone somehow won it
all on the c
Isaac Bruce to retire as a Ram >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Rams announced Monday they have
acquired Isaac Bruce, the franchise's all-time leading receiver, so he can
retire with the team.
Bruce spent the last two seasons with the San Francisco 49
Mariners put Sweeney on DL >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners made three roster moves
on Monday, including placing first baseman Mike Sweeney on the 15-day disabled
list.
Sweeney is battling lower back inflammation as the DL move was mad
Ravens cancel last week of OTAs in wake of rules violations >>
Owings Mills, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Ravens have canceled their
last week of organized team activities after learning of violations in rules
governing offseason workouts.
In a statement released by the NFL and the Play
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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It's less than a month until the NHL hockey betting season opens at MySportsbook.com and preparations are underway for another battle in the race to hoist Lord Stanley's mug in 2007.
As cup crazy fans prepare to place their bets, one online sportsbook ,MySportsbook.com, is offering hockey betting lines on the 2007/2007 Stanley Cup , who will bring it home this upcoming season.
Despite a poor showing in last season's playoffs and the loss of Steve Yzerman to retirement, the Detroit Red Wings are early favourites at this online sportsbook with wagering odds of 6-1. The Wings will look to offensive powerhouse Pavel Datsyuk and newly appointed captain Nicklas Lidstrom to lead one of the league's most prominent franchises.
Always a threat are the Ottawa Senators, with newly acquired goaltender Martin Gerber from the Stanley Cup champion ,Carolina Hurricanes. The Sens are second best in the rankings at a 7-1 bet, and odds makers at this sportsbook are optimistic that the Ottawa squad will fare better than last season's Eastern Conference semi-final upset to the Buffalo Sabres.
Also worth noting are the defending Stanley Cup champs Carolina Hurricanes, a 10-1 bet to repeat. Behind the Canes are the New Jersey Devils, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Anaheim Mighty Ducks all sit at 12-1. In the basement are the Washington Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks, and St. Louis Blues who all have 100-1 odds to win.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your hockey betting needs.
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