Nationals seek third straight win in opener with Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals hope to build off a very encouraging showing in their most recent series when the club travels to Miller Park tonight to start up a three-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Washington enters this evening's tilt off back-to-back victories on the road over National League Central contender Cincinnati. After posting an 8-5 victory behind rookie Stephen Strasburg on Wednesday, the Nationals received an even better performance out of veteran Livan Hernandez to hand the Reds a 7-1 defeat in yesterday's finale of a four-game series.

Hernandez (7-6) went the distance on a seven hitter and did not walk a batter while striking out five to stop a two-start losing streak. The 35-year-old notched his first victory since June 21.

Adam Dunn helped Hernandez's cause by belting a two-run homer and Roger Bernadina added a solo shot for the Nationals, who had lost four of the first five tests of their current 10-game road trip before Wednesday's verdict. Nyjer Morgan and Adam Kennedy each contributed two hits and an RBI to yesterday's result.

"We needed to put a couple together, and especially against a ballclub as good as Cincinnati," said Nationals manager Jim Riggleman. "We needed to win a couple. Not win a game and take a step back. We needed to show ourselves that yeah, you know, we can play with these other teams and put a few together and not win sporadically, but win more consistently."

Craig Stammen will try to give the Nationals another strong start when he takes the ball for tonight's opener. The right-hander has gone 0-2 over his last two mound trips, but did pitch very well in a hard-luck loss at Florida this past Sunday.

Stammen held the Marlins to a run on six hits and struck out six batters over six innings that day, but didn't get any support in a 1-0 setback. He's had trouble breaking into the win column all throughout this season, having notched just two victories in 16 starts in 2010.

The 26-year-old is 1-0 in two previous meetings with the Brewers, both of which took place last season, but was tagged for five runs and nine hits in just 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision at Miller Park on July 27, 2009.

Milwaukee returns home after going 4-4 on an eight-game road trip through Atlanta and Pittsburgh and ended the trek on a good note, coming up with a 3-2 triumph over the Pirates. Yovani Gallardo, making his first start since July 4, tossed six scoreless innings to lead the way.

Gallardo yielded five hits and walked just one while striking out five in improving his season record to 9-4. The All-Star right-hander had been sidelined for the past few weeks with a right oblique strain.

"[Thursday] I threw the ball pretty well," Gallardo said. "I just tried to stay in that rhythm. It's been a couple of weeks."

Rickie Weeks went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and Prince Fielder added a solo blast, his 24th of the season, to help the Brewers avenge two straight losses to the Pirates on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Chris Narveson will try to make it two in a row for Milwaukee this evening, and the left-hander also seeks to follow up a solid last start when he toes the rubber in the opener. The 28-year-old held Atlanta to a pair of runs on six hits over six innings this past Saturday to gain the win in the Brewers' 6-3 verdict.

Narveson, who had been tagged for 10 runs (nine earned) and served up three homers in only 3 1/3 innings in his final first-half start, a home setback to San Francisco on July 7, is now 8-6 with a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts and nine relief appearances this year. He's had trouble pitching at Miller Park, though, having compiled a 6.12 ERA in 11 appearances (seven starts).

This will be Narveson's first career encounter with the Nationals in a starting role, but he did earn a win over Washington with 2 2/3 scoreless innings of relief last August at Nationals Park.

The Nationals took two of three from the Brewers at home from April 16-18, but have lost in nine of their last 11 visits to Miller Park.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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